DraftKings now leading US sports betting app download strong growth, Morgan Stanley says

In its latest research study on the gaming industry, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyzed sports betting app downloads to see trends post NFL season and leading up to March Madness. February app downloads increased 84% year-on-year, still strong but showing a slight deceleration. DraftKings had leading 35% share, FanDuel was close behind with 31%, FOX Bet held 7.5%, and MGM/GVC increased to 6%.

The last four weeks of data show US sports betting app downloads increased 84% year-over-year, below Jan +118%, but still strong as the prior month benefited more from the NFL season, including Playoffs, leading up to the Feb. 2 Super Bowl. From late January 2020 —a peak for downloads due to the Super Bowl— to researchers’ last data point, trailing four-week downloads have declined 29%, similar with the comparable period last year (down 25%).

Using last year as a guide, Morgan Stanley expects trailing four-week downloads to decline another 35% approximately through the first week of March before increasing sharply (~66%) into March Madness. Selection Sunday is March 15, followed by the first games on March 17.

FanDuel and DraftKings have continued to dominate app download share, but for the first time since June 2019, DraftKings is leading. The two had combined market share of 66%, slightly lower than January 68%, but above the prior 10 months 53-63%. DraftKings had 35% market share of US sports betting app downloads, followed by FanDuel 31%, FOX Bet 7.5%, MGM/GVC 6%, William Hill 5%, and each of bet365 and theScore 4%.

DraftKings' share (35%) was well above January 29% and December 28%, and its highest since October 2018, while FanDuel's share (31%) was below January 38% and February 35%, but similar with its last twelve months average of 32%. FOX Bet held its market share month-over-month at 7.5%, and MS analysts believe this is suggesting solid traction in Pennsylvania given its higher downloads there vs. New Jersey, and the more aggressive competitive environment since DraftKings launched in Pennsylvania in November. 

MGM/GVC's download market share increased to 6% vs. 5% in January and 4% in December, a sign it is benefitting from more ads/promos, while key partnerships —such as leagues and Yahoo Sports— could be providing support, analysts say. MGM/GVC's late February launch in Indiana was not captured in MS's sample. 

William Hill held share for the second consecutive month at 5%, suggesting its declines from August-December may have been temporary, while bet365 and theScore were also flat month-over-month at 4% each. Notably, Penn National's partners DraftKings, PointsBet, FOX Bet, and theScore had combined app download market share of 48% in February, better than January 42%, and Morgan Stanley’s estimate for combined January revenue market share (also around 42%). Penn National remains MS top pick for US sports betting exposure due to its Barstool partnership and broad 19 state footprint.

See full Morgan Stanley's research on US sports betting app downloads.