Macau shows elevated baseline demand levels as GGR reaches $991M during first two weeks of May

Macau casinos have seen MOP8 billion ($991.4M) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the first 14 days of May, an average daily run rate of MOP570 million ($7.06 million), as per investment bank JP Morgan. According to the firm, the ongoing robust recovery shows elevated baseline demand levels, similar to what was seen during the Lunar New Year in late January this year.

"This implies that last week’s GGR – a seasonally slow week after the long holiday – was still at MOP500 million per day, a meaningful notch above the MOP400 million plus run-rates that the industry generated prior to the Labor Day holiday,” said analyst DS Kim, as reported by the Macau Daily Times.

For its part, VIP demand is on a recovery rate of around 25% to 30%, significantly higher than the recovery recorded during the first quarter of the year. "VIPs still don’t move the needles for profits/cash flows, but we believe this level of recovery is pretty impressive, nonetheless," the investment bank noted.

Meanwhile, casino stocks have been on a decline amid the sector gaining momentum. However, Kim noted that "those better-than-expected fundamentals" will ultimately drive the sentiment or stocks higher as the street numbers move up."

Last month, the casino sector posted its best gaming month since January 2020, delivering GGR of MOP 14.7 billion ($1.81 billion), a 15.6% increase from the level seen in March. The April period included two days of the national Labor Day holiday that extended until May 3. 

Gross gaming revenue in the city soared 450% year-over-year last month to smash the consensus estimate of analysts. However, it was still more than one-third below the 2019 level. Still, the start of the year has been strong for Macau.