Macau's July casino revenue revised to $2.3 billion amid slow start to the month

Macau is projected to generate MOP18.5 billion (US$2.3 billion) in gross gaming revenue this month, slightly below the initial forecast of MOP19 billion.

JP Morgan Securities Asia Pacific attributes this revision to a “slower start to the month,” Macau Business reported.

In the first 14 days, the gaming sector recorded approximately MOP8.3 billion ($1 billion), averaging MOP593 million ($74 million) per day, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li said in a recent note. A gradual improvement in casino revenues is anticipated following the conclusion of the UEFA European Championship, which came to an end on Sunday.

“This implies that last week’s run rate improved by 15% y/y to MOP635 million or $79 million per day (from only MOP550 million/day ($68.4 million) in week 1) as summer holiday demand gradually kicked in,” they wrote, as per the report.

The mass market is currently performing at 105 to 110 percent of pre-Covid levels, while VIP revenues remain in the low to mid-20 percent range. The Macao Government Tourism Office reported an average of 87,000 daily visitors since the end of last week, with hotel occupancy expected to rise to 90 percent, up from 88 percent in the first half of the year.

“This is a little softer than the trends in Q2, but this is a weekly trend that can be very volatile either way and we wouldn’t read too much into the print just yet,” the analysts were quoted as saying in the report.

As per an earlier report, Macau’s gaming sector EBITDA growth is expected to slow in June and July due to mainland China’s crackdown on money exchange activities, according to brokerage firm Morgan Stanley.

Analysts Praveen K. Choudhary, Gareth Leung, and Stephen W. Grambling reported that the second quarter is likely to see the first negative quarter-on-quarter growth in both industry mass gross gaming revenue (GGR) and corporate EBITDA since the post-COVID-19 reopening.