Macau casinos poised for new year GGR surge in 2025 amid tourism boost

Macau’s gaming industry is poised for a resurgence in 2025, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) expected to rise as tourism rebounds and casino operators expand their offerings, according to industry analysts and government forecasts.  

The Macau government has projected a GGR of MOP240 billion ($30 billion) in 2025, an 11% increase from the MOP216 billion forecast for 2024. However, Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau predict the figure will reach MOP245 billion, surpassing the official estimate by 7%. This would restore revenues to 83% of 2019 levels, when GGR peaked at MOP292.46 billion.  

Tourism is expected to play a crucial role, with 36 million arrivals forecast for 2025. The growth is supported by Beijing’s expansion of the Individual Visitor Scheme (IVS), which added eight mainland cities to the program in May 2024.  

Outgoing Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng praised the IVS expansion, noting it will "enhance the city’s capabilities to receive visitors and contribute to economic development.”  

Casino operators are ramping up efforts to attract high-end players. Developments include:  

• MGM Macau converting VIP junket areas into luxury suites and villas.  
• Sands China adding 1,500 luxury suites at the Londoner Macau.  
• Galaxy Macau launching the Capella boutique hotel in 2025, featuring 57 suites and 36 sky villas.  
• Grand Lisboa Palace transforming VIP rooms into exclusive accommodations such as villas and mansions.  

These expansions aim to cater to premium mass players, who are increasingly replacing VIPs as the main revenue drivers. Citigroup analysts noted: “Bigger hotel rooms get bigger players.”  

Casinos are also innovating with smart tables and new baccarat side bets to enhance the gaming experience.  
  
Despite the positive outlook, analysts warn of potential headwinds. China’s consumer confidence index hit a near-low of 86 in July 2024, and recent economic measures, including interest rate cuts, have fallen short of delivering significant boosts.  

Still, Macau’s tourism sector has shown resilience, with visitor arrivals in the first nine months of 2024 increasing 30% year-on-year, recovering to 86% of 2019 levels.  

Jeffries analysts anticipate continued growth. “We expect 5% visitor growth in 2025… from 2025 onward, we believe the base effect to normalise. In addition, both gaming and non-gaming infrastructure should continue to attract players and visitors,” they said. 

As the industry recovers, Macau is positioning itself for sustainable growth through a combination of tourism, infrastructure development, and strategic investments in the gaming sector.