Macau casino revenues rise in 2024 but remain below pre-pandemic levels

Casino revenues in Macau surged by nearly a quarter in 2024, driven by post-pandemic recovery and a pivot toward mass-market gamblers. However, revenues fell short of pre-pandemic levels, underscoring the city's economic reliance on casinos and the need for diversification.

The city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached 226.8 billion patacas ($28.35 billion) last year, a 23.9% rise from 2023 but only 77.5% of the record 292.5 billion patacas achieved in 2019, according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. December revenue fell 2% year-over-year, marking the only monthly decline in 2024.

Macau, the only place in China where gambling is legal, derives about 80% of its tax revenue from the casino sector. This dependency has been spotlighted as a vulnerability by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who visited Macau in December for the 25th anniversary of the city’s return to Chinese rule.

During his visit, Xi urged Macau to “have the courage” to diversify its economy by establishing new industries and aligning with national development strategies, including closer integration with the Greater Bay Area and participation in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Macau’s casinos have also been forced to adapt as revenues from the high-roller VIP sector declined due to China’s anti-corruption drive and regulatory changes targeting junket operators. The prosecution of Suncity boss Alvin Chau in 2023, which led to an 18-year prison sentence for illegal gambling, marked a significant turning point for the VIP segment.

To attract a broader range of visitors, casinos are investing tens of billions of dollars in non-gaming amenities, including luxury hotels, entertainment venues, and retail offerings.

Despite challenges, analysts expect Macau’s gaming industry to continue its recovery. Projections from Morgan Stanley indicate GGR will grow to around $30 billion in 2025 and $31.2 billion in 2026, although much depends on China’s broader economic performance.

Looking ahead, analysts at Morgan Stanley expect ‘slight but steady growth,’ while Vanguard’s December note warns of potential headwinds, including a prolonged housing downturn and global trade uncertainties.