Macau’s gaming revenue to rise 8% in 2025, driven by Chinese tourism: Goldman Sachs

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to grow by 8% year-on-year in 2025, buoyed by robust travel spending among Chinese tourists, Goldman Sachs said in a recent report. The investment bank highlighted a broader rebound in China’s travel sector, forecasting travel spending to grow 7% in 2025, surpassing overall consumption trends.

Macau’s GGR for 2024 reached MOP226.78 billion ($28.39 billion), marking a 23.9% increase from 2023 but still 22.5% below the pre-pandemic 2019 peak of MOP292.45 billion ($36.7 billion).  

Goldman Sachs anticipates a 9% growth in mass-market GGR and a 4% rise in VIP revenue for 2025. With reduced inflationary pressures and limited competition, the bank expects much of the revenue growth to translate into higher profitability, forecasting an 11% year-on-year increase in EBITDA.  

Macau’s gaming recovery continues to benefit from a resurgence in visitor numbers. Gross gaming revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 reached MOP57.4 billion ($7.2 billion), a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase.  

Tourism data from November indicates a 10% year-on-year increase in overall visitor numbers, with day-trippers up 14% and overnight visitors rising 5%. Wealthier regions are contributing significantly to the recovery, with arrivals from Beijing up 58%, Shanghai up 35%, and Zhejiang up 25%, nearing pre-pandemic levels.  

Despite positive GGR trends, Macau’s casino stocks ended fiscal 2024 down an average of 12%, driven by intensified competition in the premium mass segment and a crackdown on illegal money exchangers.  

Nevertheless, the sector remains attractive. Macau continues to be one of the most appealing gaming markets within China's travel and transportation landscape.

Sands China, which was named a top pick by Goldman Sachs, is expected to see improved market share with the completion of the Londoner renovation and the resumption of dividends in mid-2025. 
 
The report also highlighted Galaxy Entertainment's strong marketing strategies and product innovations, which are expected to enhance its competitiveness in the high-end segment, despite concerns about market share erosion to Sands China.  
 
Investors are watching two major developments in Macau’s gaming landscape:  

• Macau’s non-gaming diversification, especially in light of SJM’s recent announcement of acquiring office floors from its parent company, Shun Tak, with plans to convert them into a 180-room hotel
• Thailand Integrated Resorts (IR): Updates on Thailand’s potential IR legalization, with both Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China expressing interest in bids.