Deutsche Bank raises Wynn Resorts price target amid potential growth in key markets

Deutsche Bank has upgraded its outlook for Wynn Resorts, raising the company’s price target to $118, a significant increase from its current trading range of $88–$90. The bullish stance reflects confidence in Wynn’s geographic expansion opportunities, operational strategies, and anticipated capital returns in 2025.  

Analyst Carlo Santarelli emphasized Wynn Resorts' potential to expand its footprint in key markets, including Thailand, New York, and Texas. In Thailand, gambling regulations are anticipated by the end of 2025, offering a significant opportunity for entry.

Meanwhile, in New York, the casino license application process is expected to unfold in the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, a potential referendum in Texas in November 2025 could open the door for expanded gaming operations, positioning Wynn well for growth in these regions.

“We believe these potential pipeline scenarios could serve as a catalyst for shares, with 2025 serving as a pretty meaningful year for unlocking what could be a robust longer-term development story for Wynn,” Santarelli noted.  

In Macau, Wynn’s disciplined promotional strategy is expected to result in a modest loss of market share. Promotional spending, which peaked at $1.4 billion in 2019, dropped to $680 million over the last year, correlating with a $1.6 billion decline in gaming revenue.

Despite this, Wynn’s EBITDA share has grown, showcasing operational efficiency. “Maintaining this trajectory in 2025, regardless of the promotional environment, will serve as a key for Wynn in Macau and Wynn shares,” said Santarelli.  

Concurrently, Wynn’s $5.1 billion Al-Marjan Island project in the UAE is scheduled to open in 2027. While it could generate annual cash flows of $180 million to $370 million, the project has not been factored into Deutsche Bank’s 2025 price target. However, Santarelli said: “Wynn will harvest considerable equity value from the development over time.”  

In contrast, Wynn’s Las Vegas properties face hurdles in 2025, including softer leisure demand, room renovations, and challenging comparisons with 2024. Gaming revenue is expected to decline by 1.9% year-over-year.

“Given softer leisure demand volumes in 2025, as well as rooms out of service for renovation work, we are anticipating revenue per room and hotel room revenue contraction in 2025,” Santarelli said.  

Capital returns are anticipated to play a pivotal role in investor sentiment. Wynn Macau resumed dividend payments in 2024, distributing $101 million, of which Wynn received $72 million. Dividend growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 and 2026, with leverage remaining neutral.

“We see the increasing capital returns as a favorable driver of the narrative around Wynn shares as the direct cash proceeds further support our view of an inexpensive free cash flow multiple,” said Santarelli.  

Deutsche Bank’s $118 price target for Wynn Resorts is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The domestic portfolio, including Wynn Las Vegas, Encore Boston Harbor, and other assets, contributes $70 per share, while Wynn’s 72% stake in Wynn Macau adds $48 per share, based on a blended multiple of 11.5x 2025 EBITDA estimates.