Macau casinos see strong start ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations

Macau casinos reported a strong start to the year, generating MOP12.1 billion ($1.5 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) through January 19, as demand remained “solid” in the lead-up to the Chinese New Year holiday (CNY), according to analysts.

JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li anticipate moderate revenue growth during the eight-day CNY celebration, which begins January 29 and marks the start of the Year of the Snake.

“We expect Chinese New Year GGR to grow moderately at low-to-mid-single digits year-on-year,” they wrote.  Analysts stated they "model industry GGR growth of +4% year-on-year for 1H25 versus +7% in 2H25 to produce +5% in FY25.”

S&P Global forecasts GGR growth of 5%-6% for the year, with mass gaming expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 15%-20%. Junket (VIP) volumes, however, are projected to remain subdued without regulatory changes, with total GGR likely at 80%-85% of 2019 levels.

The Macau government has set a full-year GGR target of MOP240 billion (approximately $30 billion), up 11% from its 2024 forecast.

The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) has projected visitor numbers could reach 39 million in 2025, approaching the 39.4 million recorded in 2019 and surpassing the 33 million in 2024.

Mainland China continues to dominate as Macau’s largest market, accounting for 70.1% of visitors in 2024, followed by Hong Kong at 20.6%. Only 4.3% of the 185,000 daily visitors expected during CNY are projected to come from outside Asia.

Efforts to diversify the tourism base include an ongoing MGTO campaign targeting international markets. Promotional events were held in Cyprus in 2024, with further shows planned for Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta by mid-2025.