Circa Sports reports shift in individual pitching and hitting markets ahead of baseball season

2025-03-31

United States

Reading time 1:57 min

Las Vegas-based sports betting venture Circa Sports revealed significant shifts in individual player markets for the upcoming baseball season, as spring training winds down and injury news emerges.

“The biggest shake-up of the week came when news broke that New York star pitcher Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for the season,” Circa said.

Before the announcement, Cole was listed at +1600 to win the AL Cy Young and +4000 to lead the league in strikeouts. According to Circa, his removal from these markets caused a ripple effect, leading to odds adjustments across the board.

Favorites to win the AL Cy Young in the 2025 season include:

Tarik Skubal +400
Garrett Crochet +775
Jacob DeGrom +850
Cole Ragans +1250
Logan Gilbert +1450
Shane McClanahan +1600
Framber Valdez +1800
Pablo Lopez +2000
Max Fried +2250
Kevin Gausman +2400
George Kirby +2800

While Cole was not a top contender in the strikeouts market, his removal caused mild movement, along with general adjustments based on betting action.

Favorites to record the most strikeouts as a pitcher include:

Paul Skenes +600
Garrett Crochet +975
Tarik Skubal +1000
Dylan Cease +1550
Blake Snell +2200
Cole Ragans +2200
Chris Sale +2600
Zack Wheeler +2600
Freddy Peralta +2700
Hunter Greene +3000
Logan Gilbert +3400
Jacob DeGrom +3500

Cole’s absence also impacts the National League Cy Young race, where Circa Sports has reigning Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes as the favorite at +325. No other pitcher has better than +1100 odds. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ Japanese rookie Roki Sasaki is listed at +2200.

Favorites to win the NL Cy Young include:

Paul Skenes +325
Zack Wheeler +1100
Blake Snell +1200
Sandy Alcantara +1500
Chris Sale +1600
Corbin Burnes +1700
Dylan Cease 1900
Yoshinobu Yamamoto +1900
Tyler Glasnow +1900
Spencer Strider +1900
Roki Sasaki +2200

Circa Sports also offers odds on MVP races and home run leaders. Aaron Judge, who has won two of the last three AL MVP awards, is the front-runner again at +300. He is followed by 2024 runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. Gunnar Henderson is the only other player listed under +1000.

Favorites to win AL MVP include:

Aaron Judge +300
Bobby Witt Jr +400
Gunnar Henderson +700
Yordan Alvarez +1250
Corey Seager +1650
Jose Ramirez +1700
Julio Rodriguez +1800
Vladimir Guerrero Jr +1800
Rafael Devers +2500
Mike Trout +2750
Riley Greene +4000

"Over in the National League, it is no surprise that Shohei Ohtani leads the MVP race," says Circa Sports. The reigning NL MVP has won three of the last four MVP titles and is an overwhelming favorite at +180. Juan Soto, who returns to the NL after an MVP-caliber season in the AL, follows at +550.

Favorites to win NL MVP include:

Shohei Ohtani +180
Juan Soto +550
Fernando Tatis Jr +1150
Mookie Betts +1200
Kyle Tucker +1700
Bryce Harper +1750
Francisco Lindor +2100
Ronald Acuna Jr +2100
Elly De La Cruz +2250
Freddie Freeman +3000
Jackson Chourio +3000

Aaron Judge is also favored to lead the league in home runs, having topped the leaderboard in two of the past three seasons. Ohtani, last year’s winner, sits second at +850.