Mexico: Online gaming sector predicts accelerated growth of 70% over the next three years

The approval of the decree that reforms the Regulations of the Federal Gaming and Sweepstakes Law, which became effective on November 17 and establishes that no new permits will be granted nor will those in force be renewed for the operation of slot machines in casinos, has modified the panorama and projections of the local gaming industry, mainly for the online sector, which foresees a growth of 70%.

This regulation would cause the massive closing of gaming halls in the future, accompanied by a reduction of up to 90% in the fiscal contributions of the sector, according to estimates of the Association of Permit Holders, Operators and Suppliers of the Entertainment and Gambling Industry in Mexico (AIEJA).

"Although at the moment it does not prohibit slot machines, it practically prohibits the opening of new halls in the country and this implies that there could be no more gaming halls in the future. If this catastrophic horizon were to materialize, there would effectively be no more machines, nor live gaming tables", expressed Miguel Angel Ochoa, President of AIEJA, in an interview with Yogonet.

However, online gaming operators expect an accelerated growth in income for the next three years, since it is expected that, with the new government regulations, players will move their bets to virtual casinos.

"For the next three years, online casinos have very good prospects, we expect a growth in revenue of up to 70%, well above the projections we had a few months ago," explained Bernardo Verdejo Landeros, Marketing and Loyalty Manager of the Online Division of Strendus, according to El Financiero newspaper.

Bernardo Verdejo Landeros

Verdejo estimated an evolution of up to 70% for the sector. This means that revenue could reach $4.63 billion. On the contrary, before the Regulation of the Federal Law of Gaming and Sweepstakes reform, revenue projections towards 2027 were $3.49 billion, an increase of 31% compared to revenues in 2023, which are expected to reach $2.39 billion.

"The advantage of being an online casino is that these provisions would not be affecting us, in such a way that the possibilities for growth are very great, we even foresee that new competitors will enter given the complicated conditions that physical casinos are facing", commented the Manager of Strendus online casino.

Internet penetration

Currently, the penetration of users in the online gaming market is approximately 17.3% of Mexicans with internet access. However, it is projected that as coverage increases and the number of users with a smartphone increases, penetration will be higher. In this sense, the number of online casino users is expected to reach 31.6 million by the end of 2028, according to Statista.

"The expectations for growth in this sector are very high, it is expected that in the coming years, there will be a growth in the number of users, thanks to the fact that there are more and more options for betting and also due to the growing interest of women in sports betting," said Roberto Müller, CFO of the online casino Playdoit.

He detailed that even the average ticket will increase in the coming years, as it is currently between MXN 200 and 1,000, but for the next two years, it is expected to grow by 18% year-over-year.

"From wherever we look at it, online casinos have great opportunities for growth in Mexico in the coming years, but it is important that there continue to be clear rules to attract new investments to the country," Verdejo added.