Macau: Citigroup estimates gross gaming revenue to reach $29 billion in 2024

Citigroup’s latest research report has revealed its forecast for Macau’s 2024 gaming prospects, predicting that the casino industry could generate MOP231.3 billion ($29 billion) in gross gaming revenue this year.

Macau Business cited analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung who noted that the upward revision of their estimate was based on January’s "impressive performance" of approximately MOP19.34 billion ($2.4 billion).

“Simply put, the usual pre-CNY slowdown has yet to happen,” wrote the pair. “We believe the strength is attributable to the K-POP ENHYPEN concerts held at Galaxy Arena last week, but more importantly, this data point shows that mainland Chinese visitors are still able and willing to spend in Macau.”

According to the analysts, the full-year forecast suggests a 79 percent recovery from pre-Covid 2019 figures.

Citigroup further believes that as much as MOP19.5 billion ($2.4 billion) in casino revenue could be generated this month – up from its previous prediction of MOP18.5 billion. According to its research arm, a daily run-rate of MOP567 million ($70,412,951) is possible for the first 11 days of February due to a “usual slowdown” – a period before the Lunar New Year when most Chinese return home for family gatherings.

The figure could accelerate to MOP900 million ($111 million) per day from 12 to 17 February, which are the last six days of the festive occasion known as the Golden Week, before slowing to a daily average of MOP655 million ($81 million).

Macau has commenced 2024 on a strong note, revealing a substantial 67% year-over-year increase in gaming revenue for January, reaching MOP$19.3 billion (US$2.4 billion). The surge is attributed to heightened tourism levels throughout 2023.

The figures are built on the back of strong visitation levels: December 2023 marked the highest number of visitor arrivals since January 2020, sustaining a trend observed over the past year. December recorded a total of 2,943,930 visitors, with an average per-capita spending of MOP$2,366 ($293.87) in Q3.