Florida anticipates $4.4 billion windfall from Seminole Gaming Compact amid legal uncertainties

Florida stands to gain $4.4 billion over the next six years from its gambling deal with the Seminole Tribe, contingent on ongoing judicial support for the Seminole Gaming Compact.

Following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision not to stay a lower court order endorsing the compact, the Seminole Tribe has initiated the transfer of compact-related revenue payments to the state, amounting to $120 million thus far in the current year, Florida Politics reported.

State economists anticipate that Florida will accrue nearly $344 million from the Tribe by the fiscal year's end on June 30. The estimate would jump to $749.3 million in the 2024-25 fiscal year and continue increasing to $889.6 million during the 2028-29 year. The Revenue Estimating Conference's recent meeting projected a total of $4.43 billion flowing into the state over the next six years.

Simultaneously, legislators are advancing a plan that earmarks a significant portion of the compact revenues for environmental initiatives. Senate Bill 1638, unanimously passed by the Florida Senate, proposes diverting 96% of the compact revenues towards programs safeguarding wildlife, preserving state parks, and enhancing water quality.

If enacted, the bill allocates $100 million to the Florida Wildlife Corridor for conserving lands crucial to maintaining interconnected habitats, another $100 million for land management projects by the Department of Environmental Protection, the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, and the Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, and an additional $100 million to the DEP's Resilient Florida Trust Fund. This fund supports local grants aimed at protecting key assets from the impact of sea level rise and climate change.

However, the reliability of this revenue stream faces uncertainty due to an ongoing legal challenge by some parimutuels, alleging violations of state and federal law within the compact. The legal proceedings, pending at both the U.S. Supreme Court and the Florida Supreme Court, have disrupted the regularity of monthly payments in the past, prompting economists to categorize the funds as one-time, non-recurring in the budget.

“The (Revenue Estimating) Conference believes that the continuation of these payments is dependent on outcomes in the judicial system that are unknown at this time,” the state economists' report said. 

Governor Ron DeSantis negotiated the compact with the tribe in 2021, and the Legislature later ratified the deal. The deal allows the Seminoles to offer online sports betting statewide and craps and roulette at tribal casinos. In exchange, the tribe agreed to pay a portion of revenues to the state.