Macau: Morgan Stanley adjusts March casino revenue forecast to $2.3 B following lackluster February results

Morgan Stanley has revised its Macau casino revenue projection for March to MOP19 billion (US$2.37 billion) after the gaming sector underperformed last month. Marking a three percent increase compared to February, the forecast also indicates a recovery to 74 percent of the pre-pandemic 2019 level.

Macau's gross gaming revenue faced a decline in February compared to the previous month, reaching nearly MOP18.5 billion (US$2.3 billion), despite a bustling Golden Week attracting tourists to the city.

The revenue figures fell short of analysts' expectations ranging from MOP18 billion to MOP19.8 billion, as highlighted by analysts Praveen K Choudhary and Gareth Leung in a recent note, Macau Business reported. The region had recorded MOP19.34 billion ($2.4 billion) in gaming revenue in January, propelled by a surge in mass-market momentum.

Despite the traditionally busy Golden Week holiday attracting mainland Chinese tourists to Macau, the February daily GGR experienced only modest growth of 1.3 percent, even with a 40 percent surge in Chinese New Year visitation compared to the previous Golden Week in October.

“This could also be due to much weaker post-CNY spending and/or low VIP luck since MLCO and Galaxy noted Mass GGR recovery of 122 percent and 120 percent for the CNY,” the analysts wrote, as per the report.

The slowing revenue growth reflects ongoing caution among Chinese consumers, influenced by economic headwinds, falling home prices, and a stock market downturn. Beijing's crackdown on high-rolling gamblers, who previously contributed significantly to Macau's gaming revenue, has shifted the industry's reliance to mass-market tourists, more sensitive to economic uncertainties.