Analysts recommend investors to consider June as Macau's "floor month" for 2024 due to seasonal dip

Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) has faced a seasonal slowdown in June, affected by heavy rainfall and nationwide university admission exams, reveals a new report by Citigroup.

George Choi and Ryan Cheung, two analysts from the financial services firm, have advised investors to consider this month’s data point "as the floor for Macau's GGR run-rate for the year."

“June is typically the slowest month of the calendar year for Macau, so we are not surprised that Macau looked quieter than usual when we conducted our June 2024 survey last Friday,” said a recent analyst note.

Citigroup's survey revealed that the premium mass segment grew 10% year-on-year in total wagers, reaching HKD10 million ($1.28 million), compared to HKD9.1 million ($1.16 million) in June last year. This growth was driven by a 31% rise in the number of players, totaling 543, Macau Business reported.

However, the average wager per player fell by 16% year-on-year to HKD18,478 ($2,366), influenced by a high base set in June 2023 during Cantopop singer Jacky Cheung's shows at Sands China, which attracted high spenders.

Despite the slowdown, the survey indicated positive signs, including the 31% year-on-year increase in player count and a 10% higher total wager. High-stake players, referred to as whales, remained flat year-on-year at 16, with the standout player betting HKD10 million at Galaxy Macau’s Horizon room.

Among the 16 whales, 11 were at Galaxy and Wynn Macau, reinforcing their positions as leading casinos for premium mass gaming, the report said.

Sands China, which recently closed the Pacifica casino, mitigated the impact on EBITDA through strategic measures, such as converting a former junket room into a new grind mass area with 22 tables and attracting customers to their Parisian property. Renovation activities were also noted at Studio City’s grind mass area and the second floor of StarWorld.

Additionally, Citi's survey highlighted the introduction of a new side bet called Small 6/Big 6 by Sands China and Galaxy, now available at all baccarat tables. The remaining four operators are gradually rolling out this side bet in both premium mass and grind mass areas.