Analysts cautiously optimistic for Macau’s August gaming revenues after July shortfall

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Macau’s potential gross gaming revenues (GGR) in August following July’s disappointing performance.

In July, the casino industry saw GGR fall short of market expectations, according to analysts. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported a GGR of nearly MOP18.6 billion ($2.31 billion), a 5.1% increase from June but significantly below historical levels.

For August, Deutsche Bank forecasts GGR to reach nearly $2.4 billion (MOP19.1 billion), reflecting a 3% increase in daily revenue compared to July, reports Macau Daily Times. Seaport Research Partners is more optimistic, projecting GGR could hit approximately $2.47 billion (MOP19.6 billion), a 6.7% rise from July and over 15% higher than August 2023.

Analysts noted that the August calendar is more favorable, featuring five weekends, which could boost visitation and spending. “August may be a test of the strength of the recovery,” Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research Partners was quoted as saying in the MDT report. Umansky also emphasized the market’s need to stabilize after two months of weaker-than-expected performance.

Carlo Santarelli from Deutsche Bank Securities characterized July's revenue figures as “weak.” In a memo last week, he noted the daily GGR increase of 1.7% compared to June was 310 basis points below the average July uplift of 4.8% observed from 2013 to 2019, the report said.

Umansky echoed this sentiment, stating month-on-month growth fell short of the typical range of 9% to 10%. “July started weak and ended weak, with solid mid-month performance,” he said, as per the report, highlighting the inconsistent revenue flow throughout the month.

The analysts attributed July’s underperformance to several factors, including a nationwide crackdown on money changers in both Macau and mainland China, impacting money movement and visitation.

Despite July’s GGR falling below expectations, analysts remain hopeful for a rebound in August driven by improved visitation and spending patterns, the report said. Umansky said any increase in tourism, particularly from package tours, would be beneficial, as current visitation levels remain at about 25% of pre-Covid figures.